The emerging profile of India

PRIOR to the advent of new millennium, political pundits and economic experts had predicted that the 21st century would be the Asian century. The judgment was based on the tremendous potential and phenomenal progress achieved by Japan, China and the Asean nations. The economic tigers posted a growth rate of 10 per cent for over a decade, giving rise to a new paradigm of stability and influence.

India has now joined the race. The vibrancy of its economy and resilience of its democracy has ushered in a new era of India’s regional leadership, and growing role in global politics. In a recent press conference Chinese premier Wen Jiabo alluded to this role calling it the ‘Sino-Indian century’.

India is going through a remarkable transformation both internally (in terms of rapid and high economic growth) and externally (with its growing political importance). The major powers are wooing India as never before. The US is committed to help it become a “major world power in the 21st century,” while China, France and Russia are keen to enlist India as a strategic partner. The US strategic engagement is based on growing economic links, shared values of liberal democracy and India’s being a “responsible nuclear power”.

India’s growing world stature and geo-political role is primarily due to its economic growth and political stability. India’s economy is poised to take off with a consistent GDP growth of six per cent and a population growth rate that has reduced to 1.3 per cent. According to the Indian Planning Commission, poverty has declined by 10 per cent both in the rural and urban areas. India’s imports and exports as a share of its economy have increased from 13 to 23 per cent in the last decade. Foreign direct investment is increasing at a phenomenal rate. India’s software exports are growing at a rate of 50 per cent per year, thanks to its expanding information technology workforce. Almost $9 billion investment has been made in 2005 by major international conglomerates Microsoft, Intel Corp. and Cisco Systems.

India is today the world’s fastest growing major mobile phone market, with 72 million mobile users. A recent Goldman Sachs study has predicted that in 10 years India’s economy would be larger than Italy’s and in 15 years, it would have overtaken that of Britain’s. In the next 40 years, India’s per capita income will increase 35 times. The explosion of technical research schools with international standards have fuelled the economic miracle. In 2005 India produced 200,000 engineering graduates, three times as many as the US and twice as many as the whole of Europe. Last year, India enrolled 450,000 students for the four year engineering degree courses.

These developments have given Indian leadership an unprecedented confidence in the country’s future and its capacity to play an influential role on the world stage. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, in his enunciation of India’s foreign policy on February 25, 2005, stressed India’s “inclusive, open, multiethnic and multilingual society” that was “ready to defend these values abroad”. Business and commerce were identified as the anchor of relations with Europe and the US, and in the neighbourhood, the policy of ‘look East’ became the driving force of forging close relations with China, Japan and Asean.

The most impressive breakthrough has been made in its ties with the US. Manmohan Singh’s Washington visit in July last year was a watershed in bilateral relations. The joint statement spelled out the landmark nature of the visit with unprecedented cooperation in the spheres of economy, technology, energy and defence. The two leaders agreed on a wide-ranging cooperation as “global partners” building on “their common values and mutual visions and joint objectives as strong longstanding democracies”, taking their relations to a qualitatively unprecedented higher plane.

The centrepiece of US-India strategic ties is the agreement signed during President Bush’s visit under which the US agreed to accord India the “same benefits and advantages as other nuclear states”, indirectly recognizing India as a nuclear weapon state. In return India would identify and separate civilian and nuclear facilities in a phased manner, and voluntarily place its civilian facilities under IAEA safeguards.

The Bush visit covered an ambitious agenda, the areas of cooperation included energy, agriculture, science and technology, health and environment, befitting a “strategic partnership” built upon, in the words of President Bush, “our common values, our two democracies, respect for religious pluralism and the rule of law.” The US shift towards India reflects the US belief that as an emerging Asian superpower India may serve as a counterweight to China, though it has been expressed in terms of “our common principles and shared national interests. “

Besides its geo-strategic importance, India has been discovered as an important investment destination with good prospects for major US multinationals particularly in IT. Microsoft committed $400 million in 2002 and $1.7 billion last year. US exports to India have increased by 30 per cent annually. Two-way trade is now in excess of $26 billion, up by 88 per cent since 2000.

Politically, India’s clout and influence in the US has increased phenomenally during the last few years. The Indian caucus in the US Congress has 120 members in a house of 435. There are two million Indians living in America and about 80,000 Americans in India, mostly working for US firms doing business there.

The transformation of Sino-India relations is equally dramatic. Relations between the two nations had been characterized by mutual suspicion and hostility since the last many decades. Since the India-China war of 1962 relations remained cool until 1988, when after a lapse of 25 years Rajiv Gandhi paid a visit to Beijing. However, the real breakthrough came in April 2005, when Chinese premier Wen Jiabao visited Delhi.

In a rare display of flexibility and pragmatism, India decided to move forward and agreed to “meaningful and mutually acceptable adjustments” on the border issue. The joint working groups have been asked to settle the issue in a spirit of “friendship and cooperation”. It was also decided to increase the present level of $14 billion trade. India decided to designate 2006 as the “year of friendship with China”. Another potential area of cooperation is in joint biddings for energy resources to eliminate competition as both desperately need energy resources to meet their ever-increasing requirements for their expanding economies.

India’s growing interest and involvement in South East Asia, reflected in its membership of Asean Regional Forum and as a dialogue partner of Saarc, is a manifestation of its ‘look East’ policy to widen the scope of its economic and political interests in the region. India also looks upon East Asia to expand its navy’s blue water capability.

Russia has been a traditional friend and trusted partner since the early years of Indian independence. It had close political and strategic relations with India. These relations flowered in all directions during the Soviet Union days, also because Indian relations with the US in those Cold War days were limited in scope.

India has joint defence projects with Russia for manufacturing SU-30 fighter jets and T-90 tanks and Brahmos anti-ship missiles. India is also considering investment in energy sector, particularly oil explorations in Siberia and Sakhalin-3. Other agreements signed allow India the use of the Russian navigation system made up of 14 satellites, known as Glonass. India has also entered into negotiations with Russia for the supply of four nuclear reactors of 1000 MW each for its Koondun Kalam power plant.

Moscow and Delhi have also agreed to hold their joint military and naval exercises every year and the 1996 defence pact has been upgraded, to permit the sale of nuclear reactors, after the Nuclear Suppliers Group has cleared the US deal. Russia supported India’s bid for a permanent seat in the Security Council and favours its request for permanent membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization — a regional grouping of Central Asian states, Russia and China.

Relations with France received a major boost during President Jacques Chirac’s visit (Feb 19, 2006). A number of agreements were signed, including one on defence cooperation and the use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. The French president’s visit after seven years is being regarded as an extremely important event. Chirac was accompanied by five key cabinet ministers and 30 CEOs of major French companies.

To give political substance to its ambitions, India, which is emerging as a global power, is working hard to get a permanent berth on UNSC and joining the G-8, to establish its credentials as a big power. According to US under Secretary Nicholas Burns, “India is a rising economic confluence of power in the international system. It is emerging as a potentially very stabilizing and positive force in international politics. India is a rising global power. Within the first quarter of this century, it is likely to be numbered among the world’s largest economies. It will soon be the world’s most populous nation and it has a demographic structure that bequeaths it a huge, skilled and youthful workforce.”

The growing partnership between the US and India, in the years to come, will bear a very critical influence on the region. While critics are sceptical of the nuclear deal going through there are strong US economic interests that will eventually prevail. Regardless of the outcome of the nuclear deal, mutual stakes will continue to grow. It was not without reason that Manmohan Singh exulted at the joint press conference with Bush on March 2, “We have made history today.”

- Tayyab Siddiqui (The writer is a former Pakistani ambassador)